Latest ACT Research Report: Reserved Hope for Trucking in 2026

Trucking Industry Enters 2026 With Cautious Optimism, ACT Research Says

After a difficult 2025 filled with weak freight rates and policy uncertainty, the trucking industry is starting 2026 with early signs of cautious optimism. That is the message from ACT Research in its latest North American Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK, which covers both heavy-duty tractors and vocational trucks.

According to ACT Research, economic growth, rising consumer spending, and clearer emissions rules are helping improve conditions for parts of the trucking industry. Still, the firm says many fleets remain under pressure from low profits, excess capacity, and higher equipment costs.

Trucking Industry Gains Support From Strong Economic Growth

ACT Research reports that the U.S. economy outperformed expectations late in 2025. Gross domestic product grew at a 4.3% annual rate in the third quarter, helped in part by what the firm calls AI-driven growth.

Ken Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst, said consumer spending remains a major force for the trucking industry.

“Crucially for the trucking industry, consumer spending remains robust, accounting for more than half of Q3 GDP growth,” Vieth said.

The report also noted that higher-income households are responsible for much of that spending, which could limit how evenly freight demand is spread across the economy.

Spot Rates Give Trucking a Late-Year Lift

ACT Research says the trucking industry saw improved spot market rates in November and December. According to the report, resilient consumer demand, severe winter weather, and shrinking truck capacity all played a role.

Vieth said, “Spot rates surged through November and December, helped by resilient consumer spending, severe weather, and a quickening of capacity contractions.”

ACT Research cautioned that some of those gains may fade if January weather turns milder, but the late-year increase suggests that the long freight slump may be easing.

EPA’27 Rules Bring Clarity to the Industry

Regulatory uncertainty has weighed on the trucking industry for several years, especially around emissions standards. In mid-November, the Environmental Protection Agency released new details tied to its EPA’27 rules.

According to ACT Research, that update gave fleets more confidence to move forward with equipment decisions.

Vieth said ACT’s early review of December data shows that Class 8 net orders totaled 42,700 units, which is 16% higher than a year earlier. The firm believes regulatory clarity and an aging U.S. truck fleet both helped push orders higher.

As trucks stay in service longer, replacement demand is expected to grow in 2026, providing more support for the trucking industry.

Trucking Industry Sees Brighter Vocational Truck Outlook

Vocational trucks, which are used for construction, utilities, and refuse work, were also affected by policy and regulatory issues in 2025. ACT Research says that part of the trucking industry now appears better positioned for 2026 than earlier forecasts suggested.

Vieth said long-term trends tied to utilities, roads, and data centers remain strong. Those sectors support demand for construction-related vocational trucks, even if near-term policy shifts continue to slow some purchases.

New Tractor Demand Remains Weak

Despite some positive signs, ACT Research says new tractor demand remains soft across the trucking industry. Uneven freight growth, excess truck capacity, and low carrier profits are slowing recovery.

The report describes the for-hire sector as being in a long-running recession. That has limited fleets’ ability to invest in new equipment.

“Truckers buy trucks when they make money,” Vieth said.

ACT Research believes that while EPA’27 clarity helps, a large pre-buy of tractors is unlikely unless profits improve. Some additional buying could take place later in 2026 if freight rates and supply-demand conditions strengthen.

Tariffs Add New Costs

Trade policy is another major challenge for the trucking industry. ACT Research says newly enacted Section 232 tariffs place a 25% levy on the foreign content of imported medium- and heavy-duty trucks and buses.

Those tariffs are pushing truck prices higher at a time when carrier profits are already weak.

Vieth said tariff-driven equipment cost increases will limit new vehicle demand, especially as freight rates remain mostly flat and the for-hire market enters a third straight year of very low profitability.

Policy Uncertainty Continues to Weigh on the Industry

ACT Research also says the trucking industry faces ongoing uncertainty around tariffs, federal funding, and emissions rules. Those policy shifts have slowed buying decisions in both the tractor and vocational markets.

Still, the firm believes long-term construction and infrastructure needs will support vocational truck demand over time.

Headwinds Facing Trucking in 2026

ACT Research outlined several major risks that could hold back truck demand in 2026. These include:

• Freight rates and for-hire carrier profits at recession-level lows
• A freight slowdown following earlier tariff-driven shipping surges
• Tariff-related inflation that could reduce freight volumes
• A pullback by private fleets after heavy expansion in 2023 and 2024
• Ongoing uncertainty around U.S. economic policy

The report says rising truck prices caused by tariffs add another challenge to an already difficult market.

Industry Outlook for 2026 Remains Mixed

ACT Research says the trucking industry is entering 2026 with both opportunities and risks. Strong economic growth, higher spot rates, and better regulatory clarity are helping conditions improve.

At the same time, low profits, higher equipment costs, and policy uncertainty continue to limit how fast the trucking industry can recover. The firm expects 2026 to be a year of gradual progress rather than a fast rebound, with results tied closely to freight rates and overall economic trends.