Truck Tonnage Index Down 0.9% After Summer Gains

ATA Data: Truck Tonnage Index Slips in September

The truck tonnage index fell 0.9 % in September 2025, according to the American Trucking Associations (ATA). The seasonally adjusted index dropped to 114.2 from 115.3 in August, ending a two-month streak of gains. The decline signals that freight demand may be slowing after a summer rebound.

Truck Tonnage Index Measures Contract Freight Trends

The truck tonnage index tracks the total weight of freight hauled by for-hire carriers. It focuses on contract freight rather than the spot market. A reading of 100 represents 2015 freight levels.

ATA reported that tonnage rose 0.9 % in August and 1.1 % in July before the recent dip. The index has climbed 2.1 % since January 2025, showing a gradual recovery but ongoing market instability.

Year-Over-Year Truck Tonnage Index Change

Compared with September 2024, the index increased 0.8 %. This small gain reflects how slowly freight volumes are improving. ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said the market remains “choppy,” as some sectors show growth while others remain soft.

Since freight levels remain below pre-pandemic peaks, many fleets still face uneven demand and cautious shippers. The small year-over-year rise suggests limited improvement rather than strong expansion.

Freight Market Conditions and What They Mean

The latest truck tonnage index data show mixed signals for the trucking market. Contract freight volumes have steadied, but overall activity remains weak. Carriers that depend on spot loads may already feel rate pressure as volumes dip.

Economic factors such as factory output and construction spending continue to influence freight levels. While consumer spending holds steady, higher costs and slower manufacturing growth may restrain future gains.

Key Factors Affecting the Truck Tonnage Index

Several factors could affect future movement in the truck tonnage index:

• Manufacturing trends: Industrial production changes often lead to shifts in freight volume.
• Construction spending: Building projects create steady freight demand for bulk and flatbed carriers.
• Driver supply: If driver numbers stay limited, capacity could tighten again and support rates.
• Seasonal patterns: Fall and winter months often bring volatility due to retail shipping cycles and weather.

These elements will shape whether the recent decline becomes a longer slowdown or just a brief dip.

Outlook for the Trucking Industry

The truck tonnage index drop in September suggests freight growth remains fragile. Analysts expect slow improvement through the end of the year. If industrial activity rises again, carriers may see stronger contract freight early next year.

For now, the trucking industry continues to adjust to changing demand and freight patterns. Small fleets and owner-operators may feel the effects first, while larger carriers with contract customers could maintain steadier volumes.

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