Flatbed Rates Surge, Van and Reefer Rates Down in Week 9

Week 9 2025: Flatbed Rates Up, Van and Reefer Rates Down

As the trucking industry pushes through the early months of 2025, the spot market continues to reflect a mixed performance across equipment types. The latest data from Truckstop and FTR highlights a growing divide between flatbed rates —which are seeing a noticeable uptick in rates and volume—and the weaker trends in the dry van and refrigerated segments. Overall market demand has shown some signs of life, but the gains have not been evenly distributed.

Van and Reefer Rates Continue Downward Slide

In the week ending March 7, broker-posted spot rates for dry van and refrigerated (reefer) freight saw small declines, continuing a pattern that’s become more familiar in early 2025. Dry van rates slipped by 1.5 cents, while reefer rates dropped by 1.3 cents. Both have now declined in seven of the past eight weeks.

Although the decline in reefer rates aligns with seasonal expectations for this time of year, dry van rates showed a more unusual trend. Historically, that particular week has only seen a decline in dry van rates three times since 2008. On a year-over-year basis, dry van rates were slightly higher (up 0.4%), but still lagged nearly 15% behind the five-year average. For reefer freight, rates were nearly 2% lower than the same week in 2024 and sat about 16% under the five-year norm.

When adjusting for fuel surcharges, however, both segments showed modest year-over-year gains: dry van rates rose nearly 6% and reefer rates ticked up around 2%.

Volume didn’t help either category. Dry van load postings dropped 6.7% from the previous week and were down almost 7% compared to the same week last year—falling more than 45% below the five-year average. Reefer volume slipped 2.1%, with levels hovering just under 1% above the same 2024 week but still 46% off the five-year average.

Flatbed Rates See Fourth Straight Rate Increase

While vans and reefers trended downward, flatbed rates continued to climb. For the fourth week in a row, flatbed spot rates posted gains—rising by about 2 cents during the week ending March 7, hitting their highest levels since July. Rates were still 1% lower than the same 2024 week and nearly 7% under the five-year average, but the overall trend points upward.

Flatbed volumes surged 5.4% during that same week, marking the highest load volume since July 2022. Volume was more than 28% higher than the same 2024 week, although still 18% below the five-year average. When excluding fuel surcharge calculations, flatbed rates were up about 2.4% year-over-year.

This rise helped push the overall Market Demand Index (MDI) to its strongest point in eight weeks. The MDI, which measures the ratio of load postings to truck postings, saw improvement even though total truck postings fell by nearly 7%.

Total Spot Market Sees Modest Growth

Total spot load activity across all segments rose by 1% during the week ending March 7, holding steady as the highest volume since May 2023. Overall rates in the Truckstop system increased by just under 2 cents, marking the fourth straight weekly gain. That streak hadn’t occurred since March of last year.

Compared to the same week in 2024, rates were nearly flat—down just 0.1%—but were still trailing the five-year average by roughly 8%. Excluding the fuel surcharge, however, rates were up nearly 4% from the previous year, pointing to some underlying market strength even amid broader weakness in van and reefer segments.

Strength of Flatbed Rates Carries into Mid-March

Flatbed’s momentum didn’t stop in early March. In the week ending March 14 (Week 10), flatbed rates and volumes continued to rise, while van and reefer markets remained sluggish. Broker-posted rates for dry van and refrigerated freight again declined, continuing their downward pressure, but flatbed freight defied that trend.

Fuel prices also dropped during this time, offering some relief to carriers. Yet, the question remains: Why is flatbed freight outperforming other equipment types?

Regional Trends Suggest Tariff-Driven Demand

While some of the performance differences can be attributed to seasonal patterns—flatbed freight typically picks up as spring approaches—the recent growth seems to be more robust than usual. One key observation is that flatbed volume is particularly strong in the Southeast, Northeast, and Midwest regions, with load levels not seen since July 2022.

A working theory behind this growth ties back to newly announced tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. On March 12, President Trump implemented new tariffs, prompting a surge in imported metals before the deadline. These imports, especially on the East Coast, could be driving the increased flatbed volume. Freight moved from ports to manufacturing centers in the eastern U.S. is more likely to use trucks—especially flatbeds—due to the shorter distances involved.

Meanwhile, metal imports on the West Coast, typically sourced from Asia, are more often moved by rail over longer distances. This could explain why flatbed volume in the West and Mountain Central regions has remained mostly flat or even declined this year.

While this theory has yet to be confirmed by trade data, which will take weeks to become available, it provides a reasonable explanation for the regional surge in flatbed freight.

Looking Ahead

If the recent boost in flatbed volume levels off or drops in the coming weeks, the tariff-driven surge theory might hold weight. On the other hand, if flatbed activity continues to climb, it could suggest deeper economic shifts—such as increased residential construction or renewed manufacturing demand—that are strengthening this segment more broadly.

For now, flatbed rates remain the bright spot in an otherwise quiet spot market. Van and reefer carriers may continue to feel the pressure in the weeks ahead, while all eyes stay on flatbed freight to see whether this surge has staying power.