Diesel Prices Now and Trends for the Year to Come
The price of diesel has declined in 2025, driven by regional differences, economic conditions, and market trends, with supply and refinery operations shaping costs.
JimMarch 5, 20252 Mins read3.2k
Current Diesel Prices
As of March 3, 2025, the U.S. average on-highway diesel fuel price stands at $3.635 per gallon, reflecting a decrease of 6.2 cents from the previous week’s diesel prices and a drop of 38.7 cents compared to the same period last year.
Regional Variations in Diesel Prices
The prices of diesel exhibit regional differences across the United States:
- East Coast (PADD 1): $3.742 per gallon
- Midwest (PADD 2): $3.551 per gallon
- Gulf Coast (PADD 3): $3.343 per gallon
- Rocky Mountain (PADD 4): $3.478 per gallon
- West Coast (PADD 5): $4.303 per gallon
Notably, California reports the highest diesel price at $4.850 per gallon.
Trends Since January 2025
In January 2025, the average U.S. on-highway diesel price was $3.634 per gallon. Over the subsequent weeks, prices have shown slight fluctuations but have remained relatively stable, with a general trend of gradual decrease. This stability is attributed to balanced supply and demand dynamics, as well as consistent crude oil prices.
Gasoline Price Overview
While diesel prices have seen a modest decline, gasoline prices have experienced a more noticeable decrease. As of March 3, 2025, the U.S. average price for regular gasoline is $3.078 per gallon, down 4.7 cents from the previous week and 27.2 cents lower than the same period last year. This decline aligns with forecasts predicting a gradual decrease in gasoline prices due to factors such as increased refinery capacity and stable crude oil prices.
Factors Influencing Diesel Prices
Several key factors have influenced diesel prices in 2025:
Crude Oil Prices: The price of crude oil is a significant determinant of diesel prices. In January 2025, the Brent crude oil spot price averaged $79 per barrel, a $5 increase from December. However, crude oil prices have remained relatively stable since then, contributing to a steady price in diesel.
Refinery Operations: The closure of certain U.S. refineries has impacted diesel production. For instance, LyondellBasell began shutting down its Houston refinery on January 27, 2025, and Phillips 66 plans to close its Los Angeles refinery at the end of the year. These closures have tightened diesel supply, exerting upward pressure on prices.
Demand Dynamics: Diesel consumption is closely linked to economic activity, particularly in sectors like transportation and manufacturing. Increased industrial activity and GDP growth have driven up diesel demand, contributing to price stability.
Outlook for Diesel Prices in 2025
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that diesel prices will continue to experience modest fluctuations throughout 2025. Factors such as global economic conditions, geopolitical events, and domestic refinery operations will play pivotal roles in shaping diesel price trends. While some regions may see slight increases due to supply constraints, overall prices are expected to remain relatively stable, barring any significant disruptions.
