Diesel Prices Down 9 Cents in Latest EIA Update

Diesel Prices Fall Again as EIA Forecast Points to Lower Fuel Costs

Diesel prices continued to move lower across the United States during the first week of July, marking another week of relief for trucking companies and owner-operators. According to the latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the national average on-highway diesel price dropped by 9 cents per gallon, while regular gasoline prices also declined.

The latest fuel price update comes as the EIA released a new forecast projecting additional declines in oil and gasoline prices over the coming months following improved global oil supplies and the reopening of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Diesel Prices Continue Nationwide Decline

The national average price for on-highway diesel fell from $4.668 per gallon on June 29 to $4.578 per gallon on July 6, a decrease of 9 cents.

Regional diesel prices changed as follows:

• East Coast: $4.694 (-6.4 cents)
• New England: $5.220 (-2.8 cents)
• Central Atlantic: $5.146 (-4.4 cents)
• Lower Atlantic: $4.477 (-7.0 cents)
• Midwest: $4.458 (-12.5 cents)
• Gulf Coast: $4.225 (-5.8 cents)
• Rocky Mountain: $4.484 (-11.8 cents)
• West Coast: $5.425 (-10.3 cents)
• West Coast (excluding California): $4.864 (-9.8 cents)
• California: $6.073 (-10.7 cents)

The Midwest recorded the largest weekly decline, with diesel prices falling by 12.5 cents per gallon. Despite the recent decreases, the national diesel average remains 83.9 cents higher than one year ago.

Gasoline Prices Also Move Lower

Regular gasoline prices continued their downward trend as well.

The national average fell from $3.831 to $3.777 per gallon during the week.

Among the largest weekly changes:

• Midwest: $3.531 (-9.4 cents)
• West Coast: $4.831 (-8.8 cents)
• West Coast excluding California: $4.422 (-11.2 cents)
• Rocky Mountain: $3.661 (-5.4 cents)
• East Coast: $3.700 (-4.2 cents)

The only region to post an increase was the Gulf Coast, where gasoline prices rose by 2.2 cents to $3.343 per gallon.

EIA Forecast Suggests Lower Diesel Prices Ahead

Alongside the weekly fuel update, the EIA published its July 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), which includes a more optimistic outlook for global oil production.

The agency said global crude oil production is expected to increase after shipping traffic resumed through the Strait of Hormuz following the June 18 memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran. As more production returns to the market, the EIA expects global oil supplies to recover to near pre-conflict levels by the end of 2026, with most previously shut-in production returning by early 2027.

According to the forecast, higher global oil production should put additional downward pressure on crude oil prices.

The EIA expects the Brent crude oil benchmark to average:

• $74 per barrel during the third quarter of 2026
• $65 per barrel in 2027

That represents a significant reduction from the agency’s previous outlook as oil inventories are expected to grow over the next year.

Lower Oil Prices Could Reduce Fuel Costs

The EIA says falling crude oil prices are expected to translate into lower fuel prices for consumers and commercial transportation.

The agency forecasts:

• U.S. retail gasoline prices will average about $3.80 per gallon during the third quarter of 2026.
• Prices could decline further to approximately $3.40 per gallon during the fourth quarter as gasoline inventories rebuild and summer driving demand eases.
• The annual average gasoline price is projected to fall below $3.10 per gallon in 2027.

Although the outlook focuses primarily on gasoline, diesel prices generally follow movements in crude oil markets over time. If global oil production continues increasing as expected, trucking companies could see additional relief from fuel costs during the second half of the year.

What the Forecast Means for Trucking

Fuel remains one of the largest operating expenses for motor carriers and owner-operators, making diesel prices an important factor in overall transportation costs.

While diesel remains considerably higher than it was a year ago, the recent series of weekly declines and the EIA’s updated outlook suggest that fuel markets may continue moving in a more favorable direction if global oil production rebounds as forecast.

The EIA noted that its projections are based on current market conditions and could change if geopolitical events or supply disruptions affect global oil production or transportation routes.